Ethereum May Outperform if Bitcoin Rallies, Analysis Show
Delphi Digital, an independent research company which provides analysis on the digital asset market, released a report titled “Entering The Ethereum (Long-Term Economics & Analysis)”.
The report looks at what the future holds for Ethereum, challenges it will face and the transition to Ethereum 2.0 a.k.a Serenity. Below here we provide the summary of the report’s elements which focus on the future performance of Ethereum.
The project team analyzed ETH’s trading history after each of the previous forks. One of the findings notes that “ETH has declined after each of the last five hard forks, falling nearly 19%, on average, over the following 30 days”.
In the same time frame, prior to the fork, the ETH was “generally in line with its historical average”. The project team analyzed 54 token sales which raised ETH, concluding that “a total of 16.25 million ETH was raised, of which 9.66 million ETH ended up being sent to an exchange at some point.”
The selling pressure on ETH was increased post-Constantinople due to the decreased issuance of ETH. Moreover, Ethereum has been more volatile than bitcoin over the last six months.
The report also notes that “ETH tends to outperform BTC when intra-market correlations drop”. More importantly, “this is a trend we are monitoring closely as ETH may be poised to outperform if BTC rallies”.
Delphi Digital sees five potential disruptors and key challenges to ETH in the future:
1) other public blockchains that are currently live
2) “next generation” protocols launching in the near term
3) forked versions of Ethereum
4) centralized cloud solutions
5) private blockchains
Interestingly enough, the ETH distribution shows that over 50% of ETH sits in the wallet with less than 0.001 ETH, while only 159 addressed have over 100,000 ETH.