It is so Hard to Make Future Predictions and Here’s Why
We’ll admit, prediction is a tricky, tricky business. You see, when you try to predict the future trend of emerging technologies like Blockchain, crypto and other DLTs, it’s so easy to get be wrong and incredibly hard to be right. What we do know is that blockchain as a disruptive technology is here to stay. That’s albeit its inherent weakness as an inefficient database.
Efficiency is replaced by security and immutability and that has been the situation for the Bitcoin ledger 10 years after inception. Given its precipitous rise from grass to grace, the most valuable coin continues to draw applause as well as criticism in equal measures.
Nouriel Roubini's incorrect claims about crypto in the past 72 hours:
1. Bitcoin fee is $55 ($0.06 on @blockchain)
2. Buterin is a billionaire (never held more than 0.9% of Ethereum)
3. Crypto printed out of nowhere (PoW)
If you attack an industry, at least have the facts.
— Joseph Young (@iamjosephyoung) October 13, 2018
On one hand we have believers yet on the other we have vicious critics like Nouriel Roubini who won’t hesitate to lambast the censorship resistant currency. All the same, most believers and disparagers read from the same page that there are certain properties of Bitcoin that makes it a better currency. It may not be fluid as fiat—or political money as Roger fondly refers government issued tender as—neither is it stable, but it remains digital and inflation resistant.
If Nouriel Roubini really believed Bitcoin was a scam, that it’s a Ponzi scheme and ultimately that it’s worthless. He’d call his broker and short Bitcoin. But he won’t. Talk is cheap. Money talks, bullshit walks.
— Whalepool (@whalepool) October 12, 2018
So, why is it so hard to settle on sides and believe the mighty Bitcoin will drop to zero or become the currency of last resort, a reserve currency to rival the green back? Chaos Theory may ring true—when you are wrong but we admit, sometimes not all theories and or hypothesis are right.
We’ve talked to experts and here’s what we distilled:
People Form Opinions on New Technology After Five Minutes.
How many times have we judged individuals after five minutes? We create this picture without understanding their personality and character. Unfortunately, it’s human nature and the same has been extrapolated to technology. We have so many pseudo experts around who after a “dedicating” five minutes form opinions on emerging trends. In essence that’s not thinking. It’s going primordial and conjuring the lizard brain that oftentimes is wired for defense, fighting and searching for food. Heuristics made after five-minute encounters completely clouts absorption of new perspectives and embrace of novel technologies. Because they believe something—that often challenge status quo—to be false, their arguments and opinions fail to see the bigger picture.
The Future Often Challenge Their Power
And this rings true when the future is disruptive and potentially harming to current position. Bitcoin is a reactionary currency. A product of bankers’ blunder and it has been 10 years and Bitcoin remain resistant to their denigration. Just ask Jamie Dimon what he thinks of Bitcoin and the answers will justify the above reason. It will be so hard to accept what the future holds if you are a beneficiary of the current system which we all see is inefficient, expensive and defragmented. Bankers and other beneficiaries are in some sort of information ware far and even if they are sublime, it is nothing more that mental defense. They are protecting their turf preventing them from being realistic. Taxi driver—Uber relationship? I thought so!
Opinion Is Not Express Reality!
Truth is, people can have a stellar track record of predicting future events but they can’t be right 100 percent of the time. Early tech adopters didn’t expect Bitcoin to pick up and become a behemoth. Arthur Clarke for example saw a better world though he was a writer. In his mind he saw the internet, a world where telecommuting was possible but he failed to pick out the significance of rockets and the revolutions of personal computers. We cannot discount anything. People can easily paint crystal pictures of the future but still refuse to see it because of their personal opinions. People take their own interpretation as gospel instead of being patient and observant. You can’t airlift existing innovations as ideal solutions for the future, it will be wrong and limiting. Thing is, existing innovations, solve current problems. It’s a never-ending evolution and future problems will be sorted by future innovations.
To summarize, don’t be quick to judge. It’s easy to assume and let personal opinions blur reality. Bitcoin may be disruptive and solves the cross-border problem. But we don’t know how it will evolve and solve future problems.