Ethereum Price Analysis: ETH Medium-Term Trajectory Depends on Reaction at $100

 

Latest Ethereum News

The ETH market is recuperating from Constantinople bluff. As the hangover continues, keen observers are taking note of events within the Ethereum ecosystem. We all know this is not the first time this software upgrade has been put off to the disappointment of miners and other ready market participants keen on laying rails for Serenity.

Read: Bitcoin is First a Medium of Exchange and Later a Store of Value

Constantinople, as we have reiterated in the previous analysis, paves the way for the smooth implementation of scalability enabling solutions as Casper and sharding for example. And while it is roughly four weeks before developers hurry and “hash” out a manual fix, enabling an upgrade without EIP 1283—which will be later implemented, it has been noted that the number of ETH total supply has been shrinking by roughly 5,000 ETHs.

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Simultaneously, block time has been on the rise and up three seconds from recent averages of 15 seconds. The 25 percent drop in ETHs total supply is meant to trigger what developers in the Ethereum realm call a “mini-ice age” as the network readies for Constantinople where once EIP 1234 is executed will effectively slash miner rewards from 3ETHs to 2ETHs. At the same time, difficulty bomb—adjustment of network difficulty—will be postponed for another year.

ETH/USD Price Analysis

At spot rates, ETH is down a massive 2.4 percent and 10.3 percent in the last day and week. By dropping by such margins, it means the coin is $3 shy from the main support line at $100 and $30 away from Dec 2018 lows of $70.

The drop is no doubt a blow for traders. Because of yesterday’s erosion, our previous ETH/USD trade plan is now null and void. Even so, we shall be watching what happens at the $100 mark which flashes well with the 78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement level of Dec 2018 high low. Although bears may have an upper hand, ETH is bullish in the short-term and how price action reacts at the $100 mark will determine the strength of the expected reversal which confirms the three-bar bull retracement pattern of mid-Dec 2018.

If instead ETH prices fail to maintain prices above $100, the drop towards Dec 2018 lows at $70 will be inevitable. Like we have mentioned, it will be ideal if a bull bar prints in the course of the day pouring cold water of bears attempt to confirm the bear breakout pattern of mid-November as sellers attempt to resume the sell-off after a retest back to $170.

All Charts Courtesy of Trading View–BitFinex

Disclaimer: Views and opinions expressed are those of the author and aren’t investment advice. Trading of any form involves risk and so do your due diligence before making a trading decision.