AvePoint Braces for Earnings: Can ARR Growth Revive Investor Confidence?

Approaching Earnings With a Lot to Prove

AvePoint Inc. (NASDAQ: AVPT) is stepping up to the plate this Thursday after the closing bell to release its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results. The Jersey City-based software provider, known for its SaaS optimization and digital transformation solutions, is currently under intense market pressure. Trading at $10.38 with a market cap of roughly $2.37 billion, the stock has taken a serious beating over the last year. Shares are hovering uncomfortably close to their 52-week low of $9.86, a far cry from their peak of $20.25. Investors are clearly on edge, waiting to see if the company’s data security platform can deliver the robust Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) growth necessary to squash lingering profitability concerns.

Analyst Expectations and the Profitability Push

Wall Street is looking for earnings of $0.09 per share on revenue of $110.95 million for the quarter. That would represent a solid 24.41% jump from the same period last year. It’s also a step up sequentially from the previous quarter, where AvePoint posted an EPS of $0.06 on $109.7 million in sales. Earnings estimates have nudged up a microscopic 0.1% over the last couple of months and stayed totally flat over the past week. It’s a sign of cautious optimism, though past performance is keeping the market firmly grounded. Last quarter, the company actually beat revenue forecasts by almost 4% but missed EPS estimates by 14%. That kind of mixed bag directly contributed to the stock’s steep 47% slide over the past twelve months.

All Eyes on Recurring Revenue

The real make-or-break metric for Thursday’s report is the ARR. Market watchers are going to dissect these numbers to see if AvePoint can hit or exceed the midpoint of its own guidance. The company’s ARR performance against consensus has been somewhat erratic recently, breeding real skepticism among shareholders. On top of that, everyone is closely monitoring the 2026 EBIT margin forecast. There is a palpable fear that the initial margin guidance might come in lighter than expected. If that happens, it could completely wipe out any goodwill generated by a potential ARR beat. Trading at an expected P/E ratio of 27.94, AvePoint has to prove it can consistently expand margins, not just grow its top line.

Navigating Mixed Signals

Despite the recent turbulence, the analyst community remains surprisingly bullish on the stock. Out of fourteen analysts covering AvePoint, eleven rate it a “Buy” and three say “Hold,” translating to a strong consensus buy rating. The average price target sits at $18.25, suggesting a massive 78% upside from recent trading levels around $10.23. You can’t ignore the recent wave of price target trims, however. Firms like DA Davidson and B. Riley have maintained their buy ratings but recently walked back their targets to $18 and $22, respectively, dialing down their short-term expectations. Institutional confidence might also be wavering a bit, underscored by a mid-February disclosure that a major fund dumped $65.9 million worth of its AvePoint stake.

Banking on AI and Data Governance

Looking past the immediate financial hurdles, AvePoint is leaning heavily into the AI boom to fuel its turnaround. The company recently rolled out new agent-based AI governance and data protection features for its core Confidence Platform. This suite of cloud-based tools is already utilized by over 25,000 customers to secure, manage, and recover data across ecosystems like Microsoft, Google, and Salesforce. By pushing further into AI security controls, AvePoint is actively positioning itself right in the middle of a massive enterprise demand wave. Thursday’s print will ultimately reveal whether this strategic pivot into AI and data governance is finally translating into the predictable, profitable growth that Wall Street is demanding.